How Verizon purchased brands with debt and tried to compete with Facebook and Google in the digital advertising and data business.

David Novak (Yum Brands) and Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase) chat about leadership, competition, and politics.

Ray Dalio and David Friedberg hope bringing attention to the US debt problem will help the government gather the courage to cut spending. Ray highlights the historical context of debt cycles and the importance of understanding patterns in financial trends to avoid severe economic crises, underlining that many currencies have faced devaluation over time. Dalio […]

The Big Short panel discusses the dynamics of America’s housing market and draws parallels with the events depicted in “The Big Short,” referencing a significant trade amounting to $1.3 billion. The conversation touches on the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly in relation to tech stocks and AI, questioning the sustainability of current valuations […]

*Language Warning* Former Navy SEAL Mike Ritland Weighs In,” with mixed feelings about the potential classification of drug cartels as terrorist organizations and the military response that could follow. He highlights the complexities of this approach, emphasizing the unique nature of cartels as well-funded and strategically positioned threats close to the U.S., unlike traditional terrorist […]

 Daniel Yergin – Oil Explains the Entire 20th Century,” Pulitzer Prize winner and energy expert Daniel Yergin discusses his book “The Prize,” which chronicles the history of oil and its profound impact on the 20th century. Yergin shares how the book’s initial focus on oil’s history evolved into a comprehensive account of the century itself due […]

Pete Najarian on how trading has evolved, his strategy, and the growth of option trading.

Cliff Asness on tax policy, diversification, and Warren Buffett vs the quants…

Michael Dell shares insights into his early fascination with technology and entrepreneurship , sparked at the age of 16 when he took apart an IBM computer. Initially pursuing a premed path at the University of Texas, Dell’s growing success in his computer venture led him to pivot focus towards technology, resulting in rapid growth for Dell Computer […]

“You Will Never Look at College Football the Same” Michael MacKelvie explores the distinctive nature of college football, emphasizing its rich traditions and community connections amid a commercial landscape that increasingly prioritizes financial gain over local rivalries and fan engagement. It contrasts the collegiate sport’s lack of parity with the NFL’s structured fairness, highlighting the deep emotional […]

Martin Shkreli expresses significant skepticism regarding Michael Saylor’s enthusiastic promotion of Bitcoin, labeling it as implausible and highlighting BTC as a possible hedge to short MSTR. While acknowledging Bitcoin’s increasing institutional interest, he notes a disconnect with the average investor and underscores the need for more user-friendly transaction platforms. Shkreli conveys a bearish outlook on […]

Jeff Bezos shares his optimistic perspective on Donald Trump’s potential to reduce excessive regulations in the U.S., viewing this as vital for economic growth and managing national debt through increased GDP. He also expresses hope for a more positive engagement from Trump towards the press and notes a calmer demeanor from the former president. Transitioning […]

“Can Trump’s Tariffs Work?” explores President-elect Donald Trump’s strong advocacy for tariffs as a means to protect American jobs and stimulate the economy, an approach he has termed himself as a “Tariff Man.” It details his proposed tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China, and the economic reactions these policies triggered. The discussion contrasts Trump’s tariff […]

“National Capitalism & Death of the International Monetary System” presents an opinion on China and its impact on global investment strategies. The dialogue covers the historical trajectory of the international monetary system since the Bretton Woods era, underscoring China’s role in maintaining low inflation and influencing U.S. monetary policies through its currency interventions. The conversation highlights […]

“Did NATO promise Russia never to expand to the east? | DW News centers the discussion around Russian President Vladimir Putin’s allegation that Western leaders broke promises not to expand NATO towards Russia’s borders. During the Cold War, Europe was divided into two spheres of influence, with NATO in the west and the Warsaw Pact […]

“Why Does The US Import Oil When They Produce So Much?” explores the paradox of the U.S. being the world’s largest oil producer while still being the second-largest importer of oil, despite significant growth fueled by hydraulic fracking and technological advancements since 2008. It reflects on historical oil dependency, especially during the 1970s crises, which catalyzed a […]

Marc Andreessen, the discussion traverses a wide range of contemporary issues, including the implications of recent political events, the influence of media and technology on public perception, and the intertwining dynamics between government, NGOs, and social media in shaping electoral narratives. Andreessen speculates on alternate realities stemming from significant events, explores the potential for artificial intelligence […]

Ridddle discusses “How the US Nuked Space and Changed the World” examines the U.S. military’s ambitious nuclear experiments during the Cold War, including the 1962 Starfish Prime test which caused widespread disruptions on Earth and spurred fears of potential nuclear actions concerning the moon. After showcasing the capabilities and perils of nuclear detonations in space, the narrative […]

“The Smart Money Just Doubled Down” examines recent 13F filings from leading investors, revealing strategic increases in investments amidst market challenges. Bill Ackman’s substantial purchase of 13.2 million shares in Nike underscores his faith in the brand’s direct-to-consumer approach despite its struggles. Similarly, Howard Marks and Michael Burry are reinforcing their positions in Chinese tech […]

…It’s a matter of relative choices.” “No. 1, what’s going to happen? Nobody knows. His appointments are not firm, they have yet to be confirmed. his policies are not known. What is he going to do? Nobody really knows what he’s going to do? No. 2, What else will be going on in the world. […]

Andrei Jikh discusses the complex financial strategy that allows Michael Saylor to borrow public money to buy bitcoin. “MicroStrategy: The Infinite Money Glitch That’s Breaking Wall Street” explores MicroStrategy’s remarkable stock performance, which has surged over 500% in 2023 and nearly 2600% over five years, largely due to its strategic pivot under CEO Michael Saylor […]

Scott Patterson’s Chaos Kings, Part 1″ YouTube video, Scott discusses his latest book inspired by Nassim Taleb and Martin Baum’s experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic. Taleb, known for his Black Swan theory, earned significant profits from Universa , his hedge fund, during the market crash. The speakers debate the existence of market timing and Universa’s investment strategy, […]

Credit goes to Piers Morgan for presenting Norman Finkelstein and Alan Dershowitz who argue the historical context surrounding the Arab-Israeli conflict, creation of Israel, and displacement of the Palestinians and Jewish people. Finkelstein highlights the expulsion of Palestinians and questions the legitimacy of historical entitlement to land as a justification for the ongoing conflict, while […]

Thiel’s success is attributed to his ability to navigate contradictions and embrace his own path regardless of traditional affiliations. He discusses his investments, involvement in elections, and critiques of identity politics and ideological conformity within the left-leaning elite circles, emphasizing a shift in the political and cultural landscape. Thiel also reflects on the current state […]

Apollo Global CEO Marc Rowan discusses public vs. private market investing, money flows, risk, the future of private equity and the scalability of his business. “In the US we have 12 to 13 trillion in 401K. These are people who need retirement money, retirement savings more than anyone else in the world. Returns. What do […]

Stan Druckenmiller discussing various aspects of the financial markets, focusing on inflation, the Federal Reserve ‘s strategies, investment decisions, trading experiences, and advice for aspiring individuals in the industry. Druckenmiller expresses concerns about potential risks from premature declarations of victory over inflation and discusses the implications of his personal investment strategies, including the importance of being forward-looking […]

Trump, Elon, and a few others now face a moral and ethical dilemma about what to do with their businesses. Check out my conversation with ChatGPT Greg Why did hank paulson not pay taxes on his goldman sachs stock before becoming a government official ChatGPT Henry “Hank” Paulson was legally exempt from paying capital gains […]

Garry Tan discusses key insights around spotting extreme winners, offering advice to founders in AI, and sharing lessons from his experiences with successful entrepreneurs. He highlights the remarkable success and streamlined process of Y Combinator , emphasizing the importance of funding highly technical and earnest individuals. Tan also reflects on the impact of AI in entrepreneurship and […]

The causes, risks, and future related to passive investing and its influence on the markets. In summary Mike has quantified 1) the effects of regulatory and QDIA changes as well as 2) value managers being fired and passive managers being hired. https://www.simplify.us/leadership

 3D Printed Domes and Arches – Revolutionary Printed House Tour with ICON’s Robotic Arm,” the speaker explores Icon Skunk Works in Austin, Texas, where the first house was 3D printed using ICON’s giant robotic arm, Phoenix. The 110 ft wide and 27 ft tall structure, which took 400 hours to print, showcases the potential of ICON’s […]

John Coates, a professor of Law and Economics at Harvard Law School, discusses the concentration of power in the financial sector through the growth of index funds and private equity funds. Coates explains that these financial institutions have grown to control significant portions of the US economy, with private equity controlling between 15 and 20%, […]

“Who knows what these polls even mean. No one even responds to them anymore.” Stanley Druckenmiller expresses his concerns about the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, drawing parallels to his 2021 opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal where he warned the Fed was “playing with fire” due to their commitment to forward guidance. Druckenmiller […]

“Why does the US spend so much on its military?”, Johnny Harris discusses the US military budget surpassing that of other major military powers combined and delves into the details of military spending. Approximately half of the budget goes towards operations and maintenance, with the next largest category being people. The Pentagon also spends heavily […]

Li Lu and Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett,” the speaker shares experiences and insights from meetings and mentorships with Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett. Munger, initially perceived as distant, provided valuable advice and encouraged long-term investment strategies. Buffett admired Munger’s ability to understand complex businesses and expand his investment horizons. Li Lu, a Chinese businessman, […]

In the YouTube video titled “Professor John Mearsheimer: ‘Israel is trying to drag the US and Iran into a shooting war’”, Mearsheimer discusses the ongoing tensions between Israel and its adversaries, including Iran and Hezbollah. He emphasizes that Israel’s military dominance against these groups has diminished, making a decisive victory unlikely. Mearsheimer also argues that Israel’s recent […]

Mark Zuckerberg discusses Facebook’s long-term investment in AR glasses, Orion, and his vision for the future of technology. He reflects on the transition from web to mobile platforms and believes that AR glasses will be the next major platform transition, offering holograms for a realistic sense of presence and serving as an ideal device for […]

John Collison on the growth of electronic payments, fundraising, and unicorns staying private

Howard Marks explores the concept of risk through four key points. First, he highlights that the future is uncertain, and more outcomes are possible than will occur. Second, knowing probabilities does not eliminate uncertainty, as even the most probable outcomes are not guaranteed. Third, using the analogy of rolling dice, Marks illustrates that while we […]

In “Meditations on Extremistan,” Nassim Taleb discusses the concept of extreme events and their impact on various phenomena, using examples from finance, human height, and behavioral economics. Taleb emphasizes that while extreme deviations cannot be completely ruled out, they are unlikely in certain phenomena without compelling explanations based on physical processes or energy. He criticizes […]

In the “Just the Facts About the US Economy” Steve Ballmer discusses the current state of the US economy, focusing on key areas such as inflation, employment, wages, and income distribution. The US economy experienced a significant decline in real growth due to the COVID-19 pandemic but recovered with a surge in 2021. Real GDP […]

Bridgewater Identify the Major Issues Facing Investors in the Years Ahead,” the speakers discuss various challenges investors will encounter in the coming years, including the sustainability of US exceptionalism, the US dollar’s strength, long-term bonds, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and China’s economy. US exceptionalism, driven by factors such as a large domestic market, responsive government policies, and […]

Rabbi Simon Jacobson interviews Loay Alshareef who shares his personal journey from holding hateful views towards Jews and Americans to promoting interfaith dialogue and understanding. Alshareef discusses his upbringing in Saudi Arabia and the influence of religious texts and figures on his beliefs, emphasizing the importance of debunking misinformation and promoting knowledge and understanding. He also reflects […]

 All-In Summit 2024. Sergey Brin discusses his excitement about the recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and his return to Google to focus on this field. He shares his optimism about AI becoming an extension of search and expresses skepticism about the need for massive compute to build AI models. Brin also highlights current trends in AI, […]

The federal reserve, the referee of all banks, completed this building in 1924 to house most of their gold holdings. After five years of construction It symbolizes the power and stability of the Federal Reserve System. 80 feet below street level, built on bedrock, 6000 tons of gold is stored in the NYFed vault, the […]

Wall Street during the early 2000s, with a focus on Lehman Brothers, one of the oldest and most aggressive investment banks. The mortgage industry saw significant growth due to securitization and government encouragement of homeownership, leading to the bundling and selling of mortgage contracts to institutional buyers worldwide.  Lehman’s executives, such as Anthony Fry and […]

Monaco, the world’s smallest and wealthiest country, is expanding into the sea with a new $2 billion neighborhood called Mareterra. The development, which costs $2 billion, is being funded by nine wealthy families, six of whom are from European countries outside of Monaco. The project directors have the power to approve new residents, making the neighborhood […]

Patrick Boyle has two very valuable skillsets and provides great perspective and context to breaking news stories. He has the ability to trade as well as make engaging videos. Topics covered are trust, stats, cognitive biases, and ponzis, brexit, and bubbles.

Buffett expresses his belief in investing only in things he understands and shares his experience with evaluating businesses based on their economic characteristics. He uses examples of industries like automobiles and airplanes to illustrate how difficult it is to predict winners and emphasizes the importance of understanding the economic consequences of a business. Buffett shares […]

I’m not sure if Thiel is at the same level of Bond villain as Elon or Sam Altman but this interview was entertaining at 1.5x. Peter Thiel and Joe Rogan discuss various topics including Thiel’s contemplation of leaving California and the country, the US budget deficit, the paradoxical nature of California’s economy, and the history […]

Boom Supersonic discusses the progress of its supersonic jet, the Overture, with a focus on the development of its own engine, Symphony, and the advanced design of the flight deck. The company aims to bring supersonic airliners back into commercial service within the next 5 years due to the increased speed leading to more travel […]

Jeff Bezos and Tim Dodd, also known as The Everyday Astronaut, provide an exclusive tour of Blue Origin’s new factory, showcasing the next vehicle, New Glenn. The tour covers various aspects of the rocket, including its reusable ring fin, landing legs, interstage of the main tanks, engines, fairings, and the use of inertial navigation for […]

The Nikkei index experienced its second biggest decline in history, and the unwinding of carry trades and the Bank of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy were identified as primary reasons for the selloff. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway recently increased its cash holdings and sold a significant portion of Apple stock, leading to concerns about his bearish outlook […]

Yen Carry Trade Deep Dive,” Brent Johnson discusses the concept of a carry trade and how Japan’s zero or negative interest rates for decades have made the Japanese Yen an attractive currency for this investment strategy. However, when the currency starts to appreciate or interest rates rise, the cost of carry can exceed the return, leading […]

Cell phone and tablet ad identification data explained. “You have become the product.” *erik prince is promoting his own smartphone in this interview.

This video explores the invincibility of diners and why they have remained unchanged since the 1940s. Diners have stayed consistent with their huge menus, 24/7 service, traditional human service, and simple comfort foods. Customers value their predictability, reliability, simplicity, consistency, and modesty. The video delves into the strategies of the three biggest diner chains, Denny’s, […]

The USS Bataan, an amphibious assault ship that performs complex and dangerous operations in the US Navy. Unlike supercarriers, which deal with crises from a distance by launching aircraft, amphibious ships deal with crises face to face by putting Marines on the ground. The USS Bataan, which weighs 27,000 tons and requires the integration of navy […]

In this Flat Earth Trading Society video, Robb Reinhold discusses the challenges of setting stops for trades based on dollar amounts or percentages due to different stocks’ volatility. The “Flat Earth Trading Society” videos are a joke/demo by Robb to not only promote his prop trading firm, but also demonstrate how to let winners run […]

“The Peak Of Crypto Degeneracy,” discusses the surge in interest and value of Solana and meme coins. Solana, founded in 2020, is a California-based for-profit company that uses a proof of stake consensus mechanism and supports smart contracts. Its main selling point is faster and more efficient transactions than its main competitor, Ethereum.  The creation […]

Jack Schwager reflects on the impact of his interviews with successful traders, particularly those featured in his Market Wizard series. Schwager shares that some of the best traders he’s ever met were part of this project including Michael Marcus, Bruce Kovner, Stan Druckenmiller, and one trader who turned $5,000 into $50 million and later $250 […]

Joe drops out of the race. Can Kamala Harris take over Biden’s $96 million war chest? Expect a fight.

I didn’t know the story of Allen Stanford before seeing this video. He created a Ponzi scheme worth over $5 billion and ended up with a 110year prison sentence. Despite his public image as a trustworthy banker, Stanford’s life was built on lies, starting with his humble beginnings in Texas. He went on to live a […]

More on Jim Simons vs other great traders and investors. Also explained (by Charlie Munger) is why Medallion is/was not able to scale past 10B in AUM and some built in promo for Patrick Bet David products and services.

Ken Langone, the founder of Home Depot and a successful investor, is celebrated for his exceptional leadership. Langone helped build Home Depot over 40 years ago and is now the largest shareholder in companies like Eli Lily. He became a shareholder in Eli Lily in 1977 when they bought his small medical device company, IVAC […]

Peter Thiel, a renowned Silicon Valley investor known for co-founding PayPal and Facebook, and backing companies like SpaceX and Stripe. Thiel emphasizes the importance of Founders and their unique visions, contrasting the 1990s Silicon Valley trend of replacing Founders with professional CEOs. He discusses his book “Zero to One,” which highlights the significance of creating something new […]

The NYSE is conducting a survey to gauge demand for overnight trading and is considering the necessary infrastructure changes. Robin Hood, Interactive Brokers, and other platforms already offer after-hours trading, with significant growth in overnight transactions. However, challenges such as central clearing and settlement, market manipulation, and resistance from market participants remain. The opening bell ceremony […]

Tesla’s supercomputer project, Dojo, is a powerful and bespoke hardware platform designed by Tesla’s AI division for training computer vision and full self-driving networks. Dojo uses a system on a chip called the Dojo chip, which integrates 25 chips to create one unified system. Tesla is also using wafer scale processing to create large, single-chip supercomputers, […]

Lehman Brothers, a prosperous investment bank founded in 1850, was at the height of its success in 2006 with revenues totaling $19 billion and over 25,000 employees. However, the bank’s aggressive expansion and risky lending practices, particularly in the housing market, led to the financial crisis of 2008.  When Bear Stearns became the first victim […]

Famous youtuber explains why he moved from NYC to New Jersey.

Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, discusses his views on market efficiency. Asness recalls his experience in Eugene Fama’s efficient market theory class, where he learned that markets are not perfectly efficient, causing a gasp among students. He explains that while markets are more efficient than he believes, perfect efficiency is an unrealistic concept. […]

(from 2 years ago) (from this week) While this topic makes for great clickbait it’s just another variation of the “this time is different” argument. Concentration is not new or different. Vilfredo Pareto noted this a long time ago. https://www.masterclass.com/articles/pareto-principle-explained Right or wrong….If an index is “too concentrated” how about we just keep cash on […]

The spectacular results of the Federal Reserve’s stress tests on the eight largest banks. Every single one of the top 31 banks passed the tests despite holding more consumer credit card loans and corporate debt, with elevated delinquency rates and retail giants reporting that consumers are tapped out. The Fed also performed an exploratory analysis […]

An opinion from a sleazy but credible market participant. Shkreli draws parallels between the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s and the current hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). He believes that the potential valuations of AI companies may lead to a bubble, but the long-term value may come from companies that emerge after the bubble bursts. Shkreli […]

Aravind Srinivas and Lex Fridman, they explain that Google earns revenue primarily through search advertising on Google AdWords. Google’s search engine, with its high daily traffic, serves as the largest real estate on the internet for advertisers to bid for keywords related to their businesses. When users click on these ads, Google charges the advertisers, with […]

Michael Saylor makes the case that Bitcoin should not be considered a currency due to its lack of legal tender status. He explains that using Bitcoin as a currency would result in added costs and complex accounting transactions due to its taxable status. Saylor also highlights that currencies are regulated by nation-states, and the advantages […]

“Why Wyoming is so Weirdly Wealthy,” Wendover Productions explores the paradox of Wyoming’s unattractive living conditions and limited resources yet having a high concentration of billionaires, particularly in Teton County. The area, which has transformed from a remote ranching town into a vacation destination, attracts wealthy individuals due to scenic landscapes and tax benefits. However, […]

 BlackRock and Citadel Securities, two financial heavyweights, have begun the process to create a new stock exchange in Texas. The Texas Stock Exchange directly challenges the dominance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ. The new exchange, located in Dallas, aims to have fewer restrictions on listed companies and offer a cheaper and easier […]

This is up there with Steve Jobs’s Stanford speech….Bravo Roger and Dartmouth. Well worth anyone’s 25 minutes.

The rise and fall of Bill Hwang, the man behind Archegos Capital Management, Hwang, initially an immigrant from South Korea, built a 20B fortune through his hedge fund and family office, only to lose it all when a stock sale triggered a margin call and exposed his excessive borrowing.

Dark pools, around since the 90s, are legal and regulated, but trades are kept hidden until after execution. They have grown in popularity, capturing 40% of US market share in 2021, and are used by hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds, and brokers. Dark pools offer anonymity and potential additional liquidity, but lack of transparency […]

“Turning $1M Into $1B+: A Masterclass From The Indian Warren Buffet”. Mohnish shares various insights from his experiences and encounters with Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger. One of these experiences involved winning a lunch with Buffet but having a friend who couldn’t pay, leading to a meeting with Munger instead. The speaker developed a deep […]

Palmer Luckey, the founder of Oculus and Anduril Industries, expresses his desire to bring Silicon Valley innovation to the Pentagon and modernize the US defense industry. He criticizes the outdated technology in the military and aims to take a slice of the Pentagon’s $850 billion budget with his new defense company. Luckey, who grew up in […]

 Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies, is remembered for his pioneering work in quantitative investing, earning him the nickname “Quant King”. He is also recognized for his philanthropic efforts, particularly in education and mathematics, having founded a large foundation and supported other organizations, including a program to teach mathematics in grade schools and autism […]

“How Private Equity Consumed America,” describes how private equity firms’ financial incentives, such as leveraged buyouts and performance fees, can lead to brutal business practices. The video uses Apollo Global’s acquisition of Yahoo as as an example and explains the ownership structure of J.W. Childs Associates.

Buffett clarified that this does not reflect a change in view towards Apple’s business or investment attractiveness. Berkshire considers various factors, including tax implications and manager responsibility, when deciding on stock investments. Buffett emphasized that they do not attempt to predict markets or pick stocks based on trends but view them as businesses to serve […]

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/financial-state-of-the-cities-2024

Ken Griffin, the CEO of Citadel, discusses his history, market research, and the current state of the US economy with Norges Bank Investment Management. He expresses concern over the economy being near full employment with inflation around 3%, while the government continues to engage in massive spending. Griffin argues that this spending binge leaves the […]

“Why JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Is Skeptical of an Economic Soft Landing | WSJ” YouTube video interview, Dimon expresses his concerns about the economic outlook, citing potential inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical tensions as significant threats. He is cautious about a soft landing and shares his thoughts on the infrastructure bill and Jerome Powell’s […]

QuiverQuant created a dashboard that updates net worth in real time. Click the link below to find out if your reps are making or losing money today. https://www.quiverquant.com/congress-live-net-worth/

Disappointed to see immediate.trade and immediate.guru aren’t listed (yet) https://archive.ph/sPbK6#selection-2142.0-2148.0

Howard Marks is praised for his ability to make complex ideas simple and clear in his writing. Marks, who believes in the role of luck in his success as an investor, shares his approach to sharing his investing secrets through clear memos. He emphasizes the importance of clarity and simplicity in communication, using common language, connection with […]

Interesting how opinions change when their candidate isn’t in office. Former White House adviser Jason Furman on inflation and interest rate hikes.

Via their Q2 update: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets

Professor Jeremy Siegel expresses optimism about the economy’s strength, despite high interest rates. The Atlanta Fed’s revised GDP estimate for the first quarter surpassing 2% is an indicator of a healthier economy. While some sectors, such as tech, may be overvalued, the majority of the market is reasonably priced at around 17 times forward earnings. […]

Mike Brady from Ocean Liner Designs discusses the collision between a ship, MV Dali, and the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland. The bridge, which is a steel truss bridge spanning over a kilometer, has a narrow entrance leading to the port, making safe navigation a critical issue. The MV Dali, a large cargo ship, altered […]

Jack Schwager, author of “Market Wizards,” discusses his advice for aspiring traders in a series of YouTube interviews. He emphasizes the importance of risk management, setting stop losses, and being objective when making decisions to exit a trade. He also discusses Bruce Kovner, Michael Marcus, compares fundamental and technical trading, and indexes like the Magnificent […]

The origins of the CIA can be traced back to the Office of Strategic Services (OSS) during World War II, which embraced unconventional tactics to maintain national security. After the war, concerns over resource allocation and civil liberties led to the dismantling of spy agencies. However, with the growing tensions between the United States and […]

Reddit moderator Courtney Saren, with over a decade of experience on the platform and an attorney by day, shares her reasons for not participating in Reddit’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) despite her long-term commitment. Saren values the community and friendships she’s built on Reddit but has had a strained relationship with the admins. Although there have […]

https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/biden-vetoes-resolution-block-labor-dept-rule-esg-investing-2023-03-20/ This article discusses President Biden using his first veto to preserve a recent Labor Department rule regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) funds in 401(k) retirement plans. The Biden rule rolled back a Trump-era rule that effectively barred employers from considering ESG funds for 401(k)s. The Biden rule clarifies that employers can consider workers’ […]

Trump defends his proposal for a 10% tariff on imports from countries like China, India, and others. He argues that it would bring international trade back to the United States and save industries, such as steel, that have been negatively impacted by foreign competition. Trump believes that the tariffs would also give the US political […]

Michael Dell’s decision to take Dell private despite significant challenges is discussed. Facing a declining consumer PC business and a plummeting stock price, Dell shifted focus to software and services, investing $10 billion and growing it to $21 billion within five years. However, the market did not share the same optimism, leading to a guttered […]

“The Trillion Dollar Equation,” video from Veritasium explores the model that spawned multi-trillion dollar industries. More specifically how Bachelier applied Fourier, how Ed Thorp made money applying the model, and finally how Black, Scholes and Merton published the model. Some immediate.trade content and expected ranges come from Black Scholes, but the rest of the content […]

General Richard Shirreff, a retired British military commander and former second-in-command at NATO, discusses his early warnings about Russian expansion and the potential threat it poses to European nations. He published a book in 2016 titled “War with Russia,” which depicted Russia invading the Baltics, and recounts the skepticism he faced when the book was […]

A notably conservative panel Kevin O’Leary, Kevin Hassett, and John Carney discuss inflation, bank failures and credit card delinquencies. They attribute seasonal issues and the possibility of trend reversal to these issues, but note ongoing struggles like a capex slowdown and small business borrowing challenges. They also discuss rising credit card and automobile loan delinquencies […]

Lyft CEO Logan Green acknowledged a clerical error in a press release that led to a major surge in the company’s stock price, with shares increasing as much as 67 percent in after-hours trading. Green emphasized the financially strong quarter Lyft had experienced but expressed regret for the unacceptable error. He assured listeners that the CFO’s […]

*Like we noted on our post from June 23, Sam is turning into a Bond villain.* Who would be the better Bond villain Elon or Sam?

In the “Apple Vision Pro Review” YouTube video, Marques Brownlee expresses his excitement about the new Apple VR headset, despite its limitations, due to its novelty and potential future implications as a first-generation product from Apple with the “Pro” label. He praises the impressive micro OLED display, high refresh rate, and accurate calibration, but acknowledges the […]

“Russia’s energy empire: Putin and the rise of Gazprom,” the focus is on Russia’s use of energy as a political weapon, particularly in its relationships with Europe and Germany. The documentary explores how Russia, under Putin’s leadership, leveraged its vast natural gas reserves and control over Gazprom to gain influence and power on the global stage. […]

Tom Gayner shares insights from his experiences with business mentor Charlie Munger and the lessons he learned, including working towards a purposeful vision and treating customers well to build long-term relationships. He discusses the importance of insuring that business ideas fit into one of two categories, understanding the role of wild financiers in technological progress, […]

Zeihan predicts China will be the first major country to experience “National Oblivion” due to a demographic crisis. The expert also highlights the rise of geopolitical tensions, specifically in the Middle East, which could disrupt the world’s largest source of internationally traded crude oil. Countries like Canada, Colombia, and Vietnam are potential labor absorbers due […]

 Chris Whalen’s YouTube video titled “Commercial Real Estate ‘Trainwreck’ Will Hit Banking System In 2024,” the banking expert discusses the challenges facing the banking industry due to commercial real estate loans. Whalen predicts that losses from commercial real estate workouts could impact bank earnings significantly. He compares the current situation to the oil patch crisis in […]

Scammers and “investments” using customer money for personal expenses and risky trades. Another case was Safe Moon, a crypto project that locked investor funds into a liquidity pool and netted its creators over $200 million for personal expenses while pretending to guarantee safe returns. The business world was also Rocked by deception, with Charlie Javis, […]

“How a Mathematician Became the Greatest Trader of All Time,” Jim Simons, the founder of Renaissance Technologies and its successful Medallion hedge fund, is profiled. Simons, a mathematician and code-breaker, took a scientific approach to investing, using vast data sets, computer models, and algorithms. His strategies, which challenged traditional intuition-based investing, led to average annual […]

“The worst year for banks since 2008 | FT Film” discusses the tumultuous year experienced by the global banking sector in 2023, which was deemed the worst year for banks since the 2008 financial crisis. The video explores various events such as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) due to the decline in funding for tech […]

The ongoing conflict in Yemen began during the Arab Spring in 2011 when Yemenis rose up against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Saudi Arabia, being influential in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), negotiated Saleh’s ouster and installed a new government led by Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, but discontent grew due to Hadi’s failure to address issues. Houthi […]

The Red Sea is a vital shipping lane, with a significant amount of oil and goods passing through it. The Houthi rebels have been launching attacks using anti-ship missiles and drones, causing concern for global trade. The US Navy has deployed its destroyers to intercept these attacks. The former admiral thinks effective intelligence gathering will […]

Jeff Bezos’s conversation with Lex Fridman focuses on his background, vision for space exploration, and commentary on effective teamwork and mangement. Bezos talks about Blue Ring, a payload management service that provides thermal management, electric power, compute, communications, and other services for payloads in Earth and lunar vicinity. The New Glenn is a heavy lift launch […]

Worth the 11 Minutes!

Charlie Munger, co-CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, reflects on his life and accomplishments in this interview. He discusses his varied interests and expertise, which have helped him succeed as a businessman and investor. Munger attributes his success to his low expectations, humility, and sense of humor, as well as surrounding himself with valuable relationships. He also talks […]

Patrick Boyle discusses Elon Musk’s changes to Twitter since taking ownership, including financial losses, replacing all plumbing fixtures, replacing the branding, laying off staff, independent content moderation, and paid verification. It also mentions the controversy surrounding Musk’s tweets and interviews, company unprofitability except for 2018 and 2019, and the financial impact of his acquisition on advertisers. The […]

“The Entire OpenAI Chaos Explained”, discusses the recent firing and subsequent reappointment of Sam Altman as the CEO of Open AI. Altman’s firing resulted in an internal revolt from employees and revealed a major scandal in the tech and AI industry. The video explores various theories as to why Altman was terminated, including disputes with the board […]

Of the 3 billion passengers who took a flight last year, more than half flew on one of the big players in the industry.  At the top of the list, American Airlines flew nearly 200 million passengers in 2022. The airline’s most popular route was between Dallas Fort-Worth (DFW) and Los Angeles (LAX), operating more than 30 […]

Microsoft seems to have bankrupted OpenAI in less than two days. If that is the case, their 13B investment will be written down however it seems investors have increased MSFT market cap by 70B today.

https://www.statista.com/chart/23592/largest-private-companies-us/

Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the most surprising things he observed in 2023. He was surprised by the continuation of the market’s momentum in consumer spending despite the high interest rates on credit cards. He also commented on the surprising drop in the commodity price complex, including the issue with the Mid-East oil and the slowing global […]

Some excellent analysis by Russell Rhoads https://russellrhoads.substack.com/p/cpi-ppi-plus-big-box-retail-earnings

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-fastest-growing-economies-in-2024/

Guy who is down big wants the public (who is broke) to buy more stock. Check out his portfolio at https://whalewisdom.com/filer/altimeter-capital-management-llc

Despite holding back during the pandemic, Berkshire Hathaway has started returning to the market with key transactions, such as Occidental Petroleum and Alleghany insurance. However, the cash pile has been showing up in short-term or short-dated securities, and the company has also continued to put more money into buybacks, resulting in a large share repurchase […]

This video describes WeWork, an office space rental company masquerading as a tech company creating a “physical social network.” Despite raising $22 billion in venture capital, WeWork never turned a profit and is considered the worst venture capital deal in history. The video discusses the significant decline of WeWork’s stock since going public, as well […]

Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX’s escapades and trial results.

The main themes outlined in the video include the challenges and opportunities posed by the shift towards renewable energy, technological trends impacting productivity and economic growth, the need for hard-nosed leadership in navigating real-world issues, and the potential challenges facing various industries, such as banking and finance, and commercial real estate. The video also touches […]

Starwood Capital Group CEO Barry Sternlicht discusses his beliefs about the current state of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s handling of the global shutdown caused by the pandemic. He notes that most asset classes, except for US office space, have seen “stable fundamentals.” He attributes the slowed performance of office spaces to a […]

OpenAI is in talks to sell existing employees` shares at an $86 billion valuation, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The artificial intelligence startup behind ChatGPT is negotiating the transaction, known as a tender offer, with potential investors, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information. The company is […]

The debt problem is so severe that it is significantly greater than the 23 trillion total debt held by the country’s national government, and there are concerns that the debt burden could reach 360% of China’s GDP. The debt problem is compounded by deflation, which is causing goods and services to become cheaper in China, […]

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/cost-of-electric-vehicle-batteries/

131.6 Billion. Ouch

The US government has recently placed restrictions on the sale of Nvidia chips made for the Chinese market, in an effort to prevent China from obtaining highly advanced semiconductor technology that could be used for military purposes. This move has affected both the 880 800 and top-tier chips, with the primary difference being the 880 […]

The USS Gerald R. Ford is hailed as the most expensive and largest carrier ever built, with a price tag of at least $13 billion. It has the ability to generate enough energy to support high-power lasers and can accommodate more stealth fighters than Russia’s armed forces combined. With a displacement of around 100,000 long […]

Israeli-Palestine Conflict Explained provides a comprehensive overview of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, starting from the creation of the state of Israel in 1948 to the present day. It covers the historical background, the wars and conflicts between Israel and Palestine, the internal political dynamics within Palestine, the role of tunnels, the rise of Benjamin Netanyahu, the […]

StoryBuilt is up for sale with an estimated value of $2 billion, including projects in some of the highest-growth markets in the United States. A&G Real Estate Partners and Onyx Asset Advisors said they are looking to sell 28 developments in various stages of planning or completion in Austin, Texas; Dallas; Denver; and Seattle by […]

Israel Defense Force was surprised and Hamas was able to reach several major towns with populations of around 30,000 people. The live conflict map shows that Israel retaliated with artillery and air strikes, including the use of attack helicopters and fighter jets. However, Hamas was reportedly able to strike deep enough to force Israel to […]

Peter Zeihan highlights ongoing negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel regarding normalization, with the younger generation of Saudi leaders showing less concern for the Palestinian cause. The outcome of these negotiations could have significant geopolitical implications, particularly if Saudi Arabia aligns with Israel.  https://www.wsj.com/video/watch-israels-iron-dome-intercepts-wave-of-rockets-from-gaza/74ECAA16-8BE3-4285-B472-E31B9399972A.html

Howard Marks discusses the upcoming sea change in financial markets and the potential implications for investors. He highlights the shift from declining or ultra-low interest rates to a higher interest rate environment, stating that credit instruments may provide equity-like returns and become more attractive. Marks reflects on his career at Oaktree and the growth of […]

According to WSJ, many Americans continue to fixate on inflation, despite the fact that prices are rising more slowly. This discontent with inflation is weighing on President Biden’s approval ratings and his re-election hopes. Although inflation has fallen, it remains a significant concern for consumers. They are particularly sensitive to rising prices because they remember […]

China’s property collapse, particularly with Evergrande, can be attributed to the country’s one-child policy, declining birth rate, and faulty population data. Evergrande’s growth strategy of borrowing money for land acquisition and selling homes before they were built resulted in massive debt for the company. Evergrande has over $320 billion in debt, making it the most […]

Crops, copper, and crude oil are the topics of discussion along with the strong bond market and the impact of large notes and rates for the producers. In the livestock markets, live cattle, feeders, and lean hogs are trading higher on the day, potentially boosted by the rains slowing down the flow of grain. Scott […]

https://ground.news/article/oil-prices-have-risen-thats-making-gas-more-expensive-for-us-drivers-and-helping-russias-war_94c1fa

If rates remain high, it can lead to a slower liquidation for those who are overleveraged, but stocks and the economy could still fare well in such a scenario. Government spending and borrowing could also impact the rate structure, potentially crowding out borrowers and making it difficult for rates to come down significantly. Finally, the […]

Jeffrey Gundlach discusses the theme of peace, love, and understanding, relating it to the current social atmosphere. He mentions the lyrics of a song by Nick Lowe, covered by Elvis Costello, that he feels captures the mood of society today. Gundlach discusses the potential for a recession based on the inverted yield curve. He explains […]

Ray Dalio, in his talk at the All-In Summit, focuses on the rise and fall of nations and the changing world order. He highlights the importance of studying history to understand the patterns and drivers of societal shifts. Dalio identifies three significant factors that are shaping the current world order: debt and money creation, internal […]

The video explains how Olympus executives engaged in fraudulent practices such as inflating the company’s books, buying companies at inflated prices, and using off-balance sheet entities to hide losses. Michael Woodford, a British businessman working at Olympus, noticed the irregularities and raised suspicions, eventually becoming CEO and uncovering the fraud. However, he was abruptly fired […]

Kimball Brooker Jr. of First Eagle explains how uncertainty around Chinese economic growth has impacted global equity markets and why the Global Value team is maintaining a cautious outlook as the yield curve remains inverted. https://www.firsteagle.com/insights/september-views-first-eagle-global-value-team-0 https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=FE

The documentary explores the rise and fall of Steve Cohen’s hedge fund, SAC Capital, detailing how Cohen became a legend on Wall Street, but was eventually embroiled in a multi-year federal investigation into insider trading. It covers the importance of relationships in the hedge fund industry, with traders cultivating contacts to obtain market information and […]

The YouTube documentary “Behind closed doors: commodity traders, how it works | FULL DOCUMENTARY” explores the secretive and complex world of commodity trading. It reveals how speculators manipulate markets to drive up prices, the risks and rewards of commodity trading, the relationship between traders and banks, the role of paper trading in futures markets, the […]

Popular tech reviewer Marques Brownlee’s initial impressions of the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro, highlighting that most of the new features are either already seen in other phones or are limited to the iPhone ecosystem. The notable change is the switch from Lightning to USB-C ports, which allows for easier charging compatibility. However, this […]

Tom Lee shares some insights on the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s decision to stop raising rates. While some believe this could lead to further stock market decline, Lee suggests it may trigger a risk rally and actually cause a stock market rally. He emphasizes that the Fed’s decision does not necessarily mean they […]

Famous money manager Jim Chanos says Nvidia is the “it girl” of the AI bull market, but states that their firm is short on the stock, deeming it overvalued. Also, Tesla’s constantly changing narrative, including its focus on batteries, robo-taxis, and AI. He expresses bemusement at Tesla’s admission that they had been pursuing the wrong […]

He talks about the progress of the Starship and the challenges of building a rocket twice the size of Falcon 9. He addresses the controversy around Starlink and Ukraine, explaining the reasons behind not turning on Starlink in Crimea. Musk also shares his perspective on the Biden administration and social media platforms, emphasizing the need […]

Ron Baron talks about his unwavering trust in Elon Musk and his investments in Tesla and SpaceX. Although he initially had concerns about Musk’s actions, Baron believes that it is Musk’s unconventional nature that has led to his success in the electric cars and space exploration industries. Baron describes Musk as a hard-working, engaging individual […]

Apple is set to release the iPhone 15, potentially manufactured in India, signaling a strategic move to diversify production away from China. This decision aims to reassure investors about the resilience of Apple’s supply chain. It also reflects confidence in India’s ability to produce high-quality phones and successfully market them. The pricing strategy for the […]

Jeremy Grantham shares his insights on market bubbles, his investment strategy, and his concerns about the climate crisis in this interview. He emphasizes the role of human nature in creating bubbles, with people driven by the fear of missing out on wealth. Grantham also highlights the importance of recognizing human nature in market behavior and […]

Warren Buffett’s recent decisions to sell stocks (33B in last 3 quarters) and increase cash reserves ( to$147B), combined with Michael Burry’s options bet against the market, suggest concerns about a possible recession in the US economy. Factors such as persistent inflation, high gas prices, global instability, the AI boom, troubles in commercial real estate, […]

The U.S. government’s deficit is expected to reach $2 trillion this fiscal year, which is double last year’s deficit. Increased spending and decreased revenue, driven by higher interest rates, contribute to this significant deficit. This is concerning given the strong growth and low unemployment in the economy. Different media outlets point to factors such as […]

In August 2023, mortgage rates rose to the highest level in 23 years, with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage hitting 7.48%. With home prices and mortgage rates both rising, the U.S. is now witnessing the biggest numerical gap in the monthly cost between owning a home and renting in over 50 years. Today’s chart […]

Marije Meerman’s final chapter in her series on trading discusses the challenges and risks of short selling in the financial market. They point out that while being proved right as a short seller is possible, it can also be a lonely and daunting task. Ultimately short selling is just a small part of the larger […]

Some industry executives are calling for a fresh crackdown on Former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine and a ban on his ability to trade futures. They cite his past actions and the fallout from the MF Global incident, where he oversaw the disappearance of $1 billion in customer funds. “The regulator announced a settlement with […]

Reminder! https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-event-development-noaa-advisory-forecast-winter-weather-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ Typically there is a phase change around every 1-3 years. El Niño anomaly is growing rapidly, with a strong seasonal impact already seen in the forecast as we head into Fall and Winter 2023/2024 Based on the latest data, NOAA has released an El Niño advisory showing a rapidly growing El Niño anomaly. […]

Singapore’s success to factors such as a strong government, reclaiming land for affordable housing, a blend of central planning and free market mechanics, high savings rates, and its strategic geographic advantage as a gas station for cargo ships. The video emphasizes that Singapore’s success cannot be purely attributed to luck or low taxes, and that […]

This video highlights the emergence of catastrophe bonds, or cat bonds, as a lucrative investment opportunity in the world of Planet Finance. Cat bonds are designed to cover the damage caused by future disasters that traditional insurance companies cannot handle. The video discusses how complex computations and data analysis are used to calculate the probability […]

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester acknowledges that there has been stronger growth than expected, along with lower inflation and higher long-term rates, which could put downward pressure on inflation. She believes that under-tightening would be a worse mistake than over-tightening and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the economy and achieving a soft landing. Mester expects […]

This video explains opinions of the effects of monetary policies in Japan, China, and Hong Kong. It explains the role of quantitative easing (QE) in Japan and its effectiveness, as well as the impact of the European sovereign crisis on the Chinese economy. The importance of capital influx and trade deficits in funding industrialization is […]

Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report could have a significant impact on the market sentiment, according to Joe Terranova and Liz Young. Terranova highlights how Nvidia’s strong earnings in the past led to a rally in the S&P, suggesting that positive results from Nvidia could help the market recover from its current weak period. Conversely, disappointment from […]

This video delves into the aftermath of Beijing’s cancellation of Ant Group’s IPO, leaving Planet Finance in shock. The sudden halt of the IPO derails what could have been the largest initial public offering ever. There is growing discomfort and worry in Shanghai’s business district as Jack Ma’s controversial speech warning about the power of […]

TL;DR While overall inflation has fallen significantly since last year, families with young children still face sharp increases in one of their biggest expenses-child care. Many child-care providers closed permanently early in the pandemic, and child-care prices rose more slowly than the overall inflation rate from March 2021 to February 2023, while many Americans worked from home. Childcare inflation has picked up since then as workers returning to offices fueled more demand, pay for low-wage workers jumped amid labor shortages. Congrats to our own E and R on their new baby!

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fa-cool-guide-to-visualize-from-which-states-the-u-s-is-v0-4x9wrh04ibhb1.jpg%3Fs%3D2614cbaf190136686129174184c21690894e194e

https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/too-many-vacant-lots-not-enough-housing-the-u-s-real-estate-puzzle-2aa19733?mod=hp_lead_pos7\ In Chicago there is “not enough housing” but there are “too many vacant lots.”hmmmmmm WSJ Reasons: Cumbersome rules to resolve unpaid tax bills on abandoned lots keep away developers, and cheap tax assessments on vacant lots encourage owners to keep them off the market. These are the perfect conditions for a downward housing spiral, […]

This video is a big ad for Avangrid, but it is useful in that it accurately describes the shortcomings of the USA energy sector and grid regardless of the proposed solutions. The CEO of Avangrid, Pedro Azagra, describes the state of the current grid, which consists of three distinct parts: the eastern part, the western […]

Michael Burry, the investor famous for his success during the financial crisis, has revealed a new “Big Short” position. He has purchased put options on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, representing 2 million shares each. The notional value of these options is $1.5 billion, indicating a potential windfall if the market were to retest […]

https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/17494/next-week-earnings-calendar-stocks *HD, TGT, WMT, WYNN, DE are some of the big ones*

The Dallas Cowboys rank first in the NFL, and across all sports leagues around the globe, with a value of $9.2 billion, well ahead of the New York Giants ($7.04 billion) and Los Angeles Rams ($6.98 billion).  The guaranteed profits and $120 billion worth of domestic media deals locked in for the next nine years have pushed […]

The implications of Ukraine’s alleged strike on the Kerch Strait Bridge using modified kamikaze drones, as well as Russia’s suspension of the grain deal and subsequent attacks on Ukrainian grain storage and export facilities are all explored in depth. Also, the rejection of the grain deal has significant economic, strategic, and diplomatic implications for world […]

This is a great explanation of futures markets and oil futures using the CME crude oil contract as an example.

As noted yesterday….the ratings agencies are full of it. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/03/warren-buffett-says-hes-not-worried-about-fitchs-us-downgrade.html

Ray Dalio’s thoughts on the ongoing transfer of wealth….the link below is worth looking at just for the charts The economy is not reacting to the Fed’s tightening in the usual way, as evidenced by the data in the charts. The shift in wealth from the public sector (central government and central bank) and government […]

Fitch downgraded USA debt from AAA. Singapore and Norway now have better credit ratings than the USA. (Fun fact: AIG had a AAA rating before failing in the most public and spectacular fashion possible, giving all their cash (and a lot of bailout cash) to Goldman Sachs Turns out picking up pennies in front of […]

Major League Soccer (MLS) and MLS franchises are approaching billion-dollar valuations, with most teams now valued at around $400 million. FC Dallas President Dan Hunt believes that there is limitless demand for these franchises and that one day they will be worth multi-billions. While they may not reach the valuations of the NFL, there is […]

https://apnews.com/article/bankmanfried-ftx-crypto-charges-ellison-60aa798f4aacb0ddd6a422b72e5a7614 FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried will no longer face a campaign finance charge at an October criminal trial, federal prosecutors say, citing a decision by Bahamian authorities to reject a count in the indictment that was not listed on the warrant against him when he was extradited to the United States in December.

Starwood founder and real estate investor Barry Sternlicht discusses various topics, including his thoughts on the current state of the real estate market and the potential impact of artificial intelligence. He criticizes the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, resulting in vacant office buildings. Sternlicht predicts a recession but hopes it will be […]

Jeff Gundlach notes Import and Export prices, are looking encouraging. However, he also mentions that these prices are currently in negative double digits compared to previous years, indicating disinflationary pressure. Gundlach believes that the massive stimulus and economic distortions from 2020 and 2021 have led to inflation, which is still bubbling through the system. He […]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-big-will-social-securitys-2024-cola-be-96855747?mod=retirement_twitter&link=sfmw_tw The range of estimates is in line with the 3.3% COLA projected by the Social Security actuaries in the 2023 Trustees Report and well below last year’s COLA of 8.7% (see Figure 2).

The Magnificent Seven stocks (FANG stocks, plus Tesla, Microsoft, and Nvidia) have contributed significantly to the overall market gains. Bianco attributes their success to the hype around artificial intelligence and the rollout of new technologies. However, he also notes that the performance of the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 has been less impressive, […]

Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO and current academic and economic adviser, thinks that a soft landing narrative in the economy, combined with *money on the sidelines*, is driving the current rally. El-Erian acknowledges the bearish sentiment among investors but believes good earnings numbers could bring some back. *reminder…there is no such thing as money on the […]

Canada, being one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas, does not have the infrastructure to export it overseas. LNG Canada aims to become a major source of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. So, this project involves building a terminal and pipeline to transport the gas from the source to the terminal, where […]

Over the past two years, there has been a significant shift in the power balance, causing Turkey to reassess its relationships. This has led to improvements in relations with countries like Israel and a reevaluation of its stance towards Russia. Negotiations on the transfer of military technology and equipment, such as F-16s and drones, have […]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-and-activision-were-supposed-to-merge-today-will-they-hit-pause-153253816.html There are still a few complications in the US as well. One is that the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is still challenging the merger in a lawsuit filed in the agency’s in-house court even after its case was weakened when a federal appellate court denied its request to pause the tie-up. The FTC has alleged that combining the […]

He suggests that the country’s lackluster economic growth can be attributed to shortcomings in areas such as immigration, taxation, mortgages, affordable housing, and healthcare. Dimon also discusses the need for better education and expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit as a form of industrial policy to improve social outcomes. While Dimon acknowledges his interest in […]

Kyle Bass, founder of Hayman Capital and one of the few to benefit from the 2008 mortgage crisis, warns of the concerning military capabilities of China and argues that American investors played a role in building their war machine. He points out that China now has more naval ships than the U.S. Navy and believes […]

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230710023048/en/Berkshire-Hathaway-Energy-Announces-Purchase-of-Additional-Stake-in-Cove-Point-LNG?s=03 Berkshire Hathaway first bought a stake in Dominion’s gas pipeline and storage assets for $4 billion in 2020 and just announced 50% stake in the Cove Point liquefied natural gas facility for $3.3 billion in cash. BRK.A now owns a 75% limited partnership stake in Cove Point LNG located in Lusby, Maryland. Subject to […]

Michael Sonnenshein, CEO of Grayscale, discusses the possibility of BlackRock getting the first Bitcoin ETF and how it affects their plans. The CEO states that Grayscale has long been prepared for a marketplace with multiple Bitcoin ETFs, so they are focused on converting GBTC. He also mentions that they are awaiting an opinion from the […]

One factor is the high demand for affordable transportation, which led to older cars becoming valuable commodities instead of being scrapped. As a result, there are fewer average cars available for the middle class. The high-price, high-margin models received first priority and pick of the limited semiconductors supply sourced from China. Car manufacturers and dealers […]

Wall Street Journal summarizes key strategies of various successful companies, including Chick-fil-A’s focus on small menu items and strict franchise model, Costco’s commitment to low prices and limited product selection, and IKEA’s emphasis on flatpacking and democratic design. Starbucks’ early investment in espresso and mobile app have transformed the company into a global coffee giant, […]

https://www.kob.com/news/business-money/german-government-puts-off-vote-on-a-contentious-heating-plan-until-september/ Germany’s governing coalition has delayed a vote on legislation aimed at encouraging the replacement of fossil fuel heating systems until September. The decision came after the country’s top court rejected plans to push the bill through parliament this week. The court’s ruling was an obstacle for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, hampering its attempts to […]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/rice-get-costlier-weather-indias-farm-perks-threaten-supply-2023-07-06/ Rice prices are at their highest in 11 years and are expected to rise further due to several factors. India, which accounts for over 40% of global rice exports, has increased payments to farmers, leading to higher prices for rice. The El Nino weather pattern, which typically brings lower rainfall to Asia where rice […]

Armen Panossian (Co-CEO of 160B fund Oaktree Capital, now a subsidiary of Brookfield) discusses his new role, transaction volume, and partnerships in the private lending universe, particularly in real estate and corporate lending.  He mentions liquidity in the market is significantly lower, with less trading volume and new issuance in high-yield bonds and senior loans. […]

Blackstone CFO Michael Chae sees inflation trending down and economic resilience. However, he also highlights the challenges of the cost of capital and the availability of capital, which are affected by factors like short rates, quantitative tightening ($1T annually), and credit contraction. As a result, Blackstone expects the Fed to deliver a slowdown to the […]

Initially, it was believed that famine was becoming extinct due to technological advancements, economic growth, and global humanitarian efforts. However, the 2011 famine in Somalia, which resulted in the deaths of 260,000 people, proved this notion wrong. Since then, there have been more famines declared in Africa, as well as several near misses. The COVID-19 […]

University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading for June is reported at 64.4, making it the second-best reading of the year. Current conditions also improved to 69, the second-best reading outside of February. Inflation numbers remained steady, with a one-year inflation rate of 3.3 and a 5 to 10-year inflation rate of 3.0, both being […]

64% of corn acres and 57% of bean acres are now under drought stress however DEC corn futures are trading close to 9% lower than JUL corn and NOV bean futures are trading 14% lower than JUL beans.

“It’s not just about making money during catastrophes…it’s about trying to protect ourselves from catastrophes” Nassim describes that most people prefer to sit on metaphorical dynamite for a steady stream of income. The primary goal at his firm Universa Investments is to benefit when the “steady” cashflow assets and trades cease to make money. Some […]

Racing to buy calls usually means FOMO

Klarman/Baupost Holdings https://whalewisdom.com/filer/baupost-group-llc-ma

The White House has unveiled how the government will divvy up $42bn among the US’s 50 states to expand access to high-speed broadband by 2030, as it launched a new publicity campaign for President Joe Biden’s economic policies. The $42bn in federal funding under the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment Program is based on a […]

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Amazon’s profitable cloud business will invest roughly $7.8 billion by the end of 2029 to expand its data center operations in central Ohio cloud computing operations, further advancing the state’s efforts to establish itself as the Midwest’s technology hub. https://apnews.com/article/amazon-aws-ohio-data-center-investment-e35c8b726269b6b78ce05854f9f31d27

*when you control the printing press (and there is sufficient demand)…you can do anything you want*

1.4 trillion of commercial debt is coming due in the US alone, and with the cost of borrowing being up and the value of buildings down, refinancing may not be possible for some. Many banks, lenders, and owners have to decide what to do as it is unclear how much further down it will go. […]

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman believes that sustainable improvements in quality of life stem from scientific progress, but stresses the need to manage through the associated risks to achieve that. Implicitly responding to accusations of hypocrisy in support of regulation, Altman asserts that OpenAI supports regulation even in private meetings, and only protests burdensome regulation on small […]

Senator Kennedy questions Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about inflation and capital requirements for banks. **Powell explains that we had very little inflation for 25 years** and that inflation depends on whether tax increases or spending cuts are part of a congressional budget plan. If there were no spending cuts, he believes there would be […]

David Rubenstein, co-founder and co-chairman of Carlyle Group, believes that the biggest investment opportunity over the next 2 to 3 years lies in the discounted real estate debt market, specifically in large commercial office buildings in major cities. Rubenstein acknowledges the challenges facing some cities, such as public relations issues and declining real estate prices, […]

The inaugural Coinbase State of Crypto Summit was focused on regulation and the macro landscape, with institutional investors, corporations, policymakers, and academics in attendance. The sentiment in the industry has been high since BlackRock filed for a spot Bitcoin ETF, signaling that it sees a place for Bitcoin in an investment portfolio. Additionally, Fed chair […]

Advanced economies like the US have had a head start on developing advanced industries, making it difficult for others to catch up. Europe, despite being primarily comprised of already advanced economies, lacks the innovative global companies compared to the US and even the new players coming from Asia, with exceptions like Germany and France, leading […]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-nearly-all-fed-members-expect-to-raise-rates-again-this-year-123006616.html Advanced economies like the US have had a head start on developing advanced industries, making it difficult for others to catch up. Europe, despite being primarily comprised of already advanced economies, lacks the innovative global companies compared to the US and even the new players coming from Asia, with exceptions like Germany and France, […]

Balaji Srinivasan discusses the recent financial crisis and compares it to the one that happened in 2008. He explains that over the course of 2021, many people were saying that inflation was going to happen, but the Federal Reserve continued to sell hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds during this period. However, in December […]

Washington Post “Expert” analysis…..

https://assets.realclear.com/files/2023/06/2201_fomc.pdf June FOMC Meeting: Saying They Will If They Have To, But Hoping They Won’t Have To? › The FOMC made no change to the Fed funds rate target range, leaving the mid-point of the target range at 5.125 percent › The updated dot plot implies a terminal Fed funds rate target range mid-point of […]

Ray Dalio and Thomas Friedman discuss China’s Confucianism way of thinking and how it affects China’s foreign policy. China views itself as a family and its country as an extended family. Confucianism is a top-down, hierarchical philosophy based on strict parenting. They focus on mutual respect between those who are more powerful and those who […]

FED DAY!!! Policy announcement at 1CST, press conference at 1:30 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-expected-to-skip-a-june-rate-hike-but-signal-more-in-the-future-141346398.html The Fed’s benchmark interest rate stands in a range of 5%-5.25%, the highest level since September 2007. As part of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign since the 1980s, the Fed has increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 5 percentage […]

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-judge-temporarily-blocks-microsoft-acquisition-activision-2023-06-14/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-michele-says-time-exit-143330550.html I don’t agree with this but…… it’s interesting to read what the other side thinks….. JPMorgan’s Michele Says It’s Time to Exit ‘Cash Trap’ and Move Into Bonds JPMorgan’s Michele Says It’s Time to Exit ‘Cash Trap’ and Move Into Bonds (Bloomberg) — It’s time to exit the “cash trap” of money market funds […]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-expected-to-skip-a-june-rate-hike-but-signal-more-in-the-future-141346398.html The Fed’s benchmark interest rate stands in a range of 5%-5.25%, the highest level since September 2007. As part of its most aggressive rate hiking campaign since the 1980s, the Fed has increased the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022.

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-surges-higher-helped-by-us-cpi-opec-report-3104289 World consumption will exceed supplies by roughly 2.7 million barrels a day next month, a report from OPEC indicated on Tuesday, and if the de facto leader of the group decided to extend the reduction for the whole third quarter, it would be the biggest deficit since 2021. The International Energy Agency, which advises […]

https://cdn.jwplayer.com/previews/MYmLSGnK?s=03 Commodities specialists Scott Shelady and Tom Grisafi talk about inflation and its implications beginning at 3:15

this is fake news because the big mac price is really 5 something but the message is directionally accurate. Inflation hurts Mcdonald’s customers the most. Personally, my last McDonalds order was $15+.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWqJSDBV1Yw Donald Trump is expected to plead not guilty to 37 felony counts linked to owning classified documents related to national security as well as charges of conspiracy to obstruct justice and lying about it ahead of his first appearance in a courtroom in Miami. Trump met his lawyers yesterday close to the court, supposedly […]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-feds-rate-decision-will-likely-be-a-last-minute-call-105028772.html Powell has been careful not to tip his hand, along with New York Fed President John Williams, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Fed Governor Chris Waller, who have also signaled to keep their options open. “Inflation is not as low as they […]

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/crypto-giants-binance-coinbase-rough-week-rcna87939 Crypto has their answer — and it’s not one that they’re going to like. That has been a major question mark, one that has left the industry begging for clarity from the SEC and Congress about how the government views the “tokens” trade, which has produced billions in transaction fees for these major markets. […]

Dalio Says STAGFLATION Ray Dalio discusses how the problem with the US’s current debt crisis is that the central banks and the commercial banks will have solvency concerns due to government debt holdings. He highlights the trade-off between raising the debt-to-income ratio and balancing interest rates for creditors rather than debtors. He adds that the […]

Investor Stanley Druckenmiller shared his concerns about the US national debt and entitlement spending, warning of the strain on America’s GDP and future investment and innovation. He also discussed the potential risks in asset markets, tightening credit, and problems in banks due to the Fed’s encouragement to buy treasuries, and he believes a hard landing […]

Warren Buffett discusses the importance of adapting to change in business. He notes that Berkshire Hathaway has diversified its portfolio in response to changes that hurt some of its founding businesses. Buffett advises expanding one’s knowledge but warns not to force it and recommends continuous learning and adaptation within one’s own circle of competence. Buffett […]