TL;DR: The US government printed new money, leading to a spike in consumer spending, and China’s strict lockdown restricted the flow of goods around the world, causing low supply and high demand, with US inflation hitting nine percent at its worst. In short, the gov is telling us the price level of the most important goods and services increased 17% from the start of the pandemic. (The S&P has inceased appx 35%)
They believe 2023 will be tough for most people due to the Federal Reserve’s deliberate slowdown of spending, raising federal funds rates, and the US government *has to cut back*, making it harder to access programs such as the supplemental nutrition assistance program. Interest rates may still worsen before they improve, and if inflation doesn’t come down, they will raise interest rates again. The overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
*when you control the printing press (and there is sufficient demand)…you can do anything you want*